F1 Most liked posts in thread: F1 - 2013

Exactly!

Three races = two wins & one third = advantage gained.

**Edited

 

That's fair, I'll try to answer as best I can.

It's not a matter of opinion, it's numbers. If it were a football game we'd look at the scores and determine the winner. This is really no different.

The record shows Mercedes had 3 pole positions in 5 races, and two podiums. Three races have happened since the tests, and the numbers show that they've had similar performance overall as they did before.

Mercedes had one really bad race out of 5 before the tests. They had two retirements on Nico's car for not tire related reasons (electrical failure and suspension failure).

In Malaysia, remember the team orders that kept Nico behind Lewis? Nico could go faster on the same tires and would have if he was allowed. Yes Lewis was struggling, but Nico wasn't. Same car, same tires.

In Bahrain, Hamilton qualified 4th, was penalized for a gearbox change to 9th, and finished 5th. That happened before the tests. Here the car had the capability to gain 4 places in a race. Yes, in that same race the other car fell back from pole to 9th, but if one car does well and the other doesn't then that's not necessarily the fault of the car. Massa had a similar fall down the field as Nico.

Spain was terrible for Mercedes (despite starting P1 and P2). That said, it's not unusual for a team to have a bad race every so often. One race does not a trend make. It's worth considering of course, but it's not a trend.

In Monaco (which again, they were predicted to win BEFORE the tests) Vettel mentioned that driving behind the Mercs was like driving behind busses. He was right, the Mercs weren't fast and they drove to conserve their tires but since something like 70% of pole-sitters takes the win at Monaco, it was just dumb math that allowed Nico to win.

We've only had two races to see how Mercedes does on an even footing since the tests.

Canada had more than average pit stops and Mercedes lost places from where they started.

Silverstone was punctuated by two safety car rounds, and tire explosions - the first of which happened to a Mercedes.

Two races does not a trend make. It might be the start of a trend, sure.

Again, it's numbers. They really aren't doing any better than they did before the tests - at least not clearly and decisively.

Silverstone was a little anomalous. With the two safety cars, Hamilton was able to close gaps that he might otherwise have struggled with. I think his advancement from the back of the grid to 4th was due as much to that as to anything else. That said, Silverstone is the strongest argument so far of the assertion that they got a strong benefit from the tests.

But now we're getting the Kevlar tires, which as I noted a few pages back have ALWAYS been thought to favor Mercedes (and hurt Red Bull), so that's going to further muddy the waters regarding exactly how much they benefitted from the tests.

I'm not saying they didn't benefit, they probably did. I'm saying that it's hard to quantify how much they benefited based on the race results we have so far. If they take the constructors and driver's championships in the next couple of races, then yeah I'll be right there with you.

And for the record, I'm a die-hard McLaren fan. This has been a brutal, brutal season for me :cryin:

 

Three, I stand corrected, but you do not get to throw out Monaco. Everyone from the announcers to the drivers and teams completely expected MB to fade because of tire degradation, you could over hear their surprise on the radio when they didn't..

Advantage gained.

 

Thanks Steve,

Nice find

 

Spoiler alert*











And guess who's P1; yep MB.

 

Something went amiss in Nico's car, other than that, MB was sand bagging till Q3... If Seb wins it will be only because his driving skills are way better than Little Lewis's.. Look for Nico to move towards the front early.

 

Me too Nathan, but it looks like the horse isn't prancing to well in Germany, take heart though, Alonso will get all there is to get out of her, maybe even a podium!

 

That's good, but even so... it just seems wrong.

It'd be like hearing someone sing God Save the Queen before a baseball game.

 

Interesting article from a Bookie site, talking about the odds for this race. It was written a couple days ago, but it's nice for context.

German Grand Prix Betting - Who will profit from new tyres at German GP?

Some select quotes

They also point out that Vettel has never won at home, nor has he ever won in July, which seems an inconsequential statistic.

So the bookies are saying what I've been saying about Mercedes performance regarding the Kevlar tires, and they stand to lose more than me by being wrong.

I don't actually have a membership at that site, so I'm not able to look at the race odds, but I'm going to stand by my assessment that this will be a Red Bull 1,2, and that Hamilton is going to lose places fairly early. That's what we saw before the tests, and I'm betting that's what we'll see tomorrow.

 

Thanks for the heads up! /\

 

Makes me want'a get out and go fast for a while today...

 

Getting up early & watching the race with my lady & a cup of hot coffee is the way I do it. No tape delays for this old fart.

No worries folks I won't spoil it for you.