I've just gotten into F1 in the last couple of years, so I know that I lack the knowledge of the diehards here. With that said, I agree with what Zapski said in the previous two post. People seem to be looking past the facts when discussing the Merc team. Who do I like...whoever is in front of Seb! I think he is a great driver, but get bored when he is just driving away with a race ( not going to lie, I was jumping for joy last week). I'm not a big Lewis fan because I think he can be a bit of a spoiled brat at times. I liked what Alonso did last year with what seemed liked a sub-par car at the beginning of the season. I also like Kimi because of his consistency since coming back (felt sorry for him that they chose the hards instead of the mediums at the end of last week's race).
They nursed their tires at Monaco so much they were compared to busses. They were predicted to win BEFORE the tests because of all those pole positions in the prior races. Pole position at Monaco almost always guarantees a win as passing is difficult, especially if you have a front row lockout with the P2 driver defending the race leader. Which happened. 80% of Pole sitters at Monaco take the win says Pinnacle Sports, a betting site. This site also says "The slowest track of the year is easiest on tires." Which plays to teams that are hard on their tires, doesn't it. Monaco was a foregone conclusion, the odds were with Mercedes all along. Nothing Definitive.
By the way, I respect that your opinion on this differs from mine. I'm just trying to explain why I feel the way I do, and using what facts I have available as part of that explanation. Besides, it wouldn't be F1 without some kind of passionate disagreement over minutia or sporting politics, no?
Respect your arguments and completely disagree with your assumptions regarding the advantage gained, but completely agree with your last statement/question, tis all part of the fun my friend!! :thumbup:
Even though he's the same Kimi all the time and I should be used to his often contrarian opinions by now, he never fails to surprise...usually in a good way. Raikkonen would ignore GP boycott (racer.com)
Spoilers. And Nico is way down in P11. Not exactly a clear Mercedes advantage, since a McLaren out qualified him without even setting a time. Plus did you watch the third practice session? They were way off pace until they made a lot of changes to Lewis's car right before Q1. Also Nico had lead the first practice session, and was doing well in the second, so what's he doing way down in P11? And again, I'd like to mention that everyone has long thought that Kevlar tires favored Mercedes, and that's why Lotus, Ferrari and others blocked the tire changes until this race. Now, if Mercedes runs away Red Bull style, and leads the race by 13 or more seconds by the end without a Red Bull retirement, then you'll have convinced me. Heck, if it weren't, for the safety cars at Silverstone I'd think we'd have a clearer picture, but even so Nico only got first because of Seb's car failure. (On a side note re Silverstone, I couldn't watch the cup ceremony. The thought of Deutschland Ãœber Alles playing twice over a former RAF airfield bothers me. ) My prediction for this race is an early Mercedes lead, with Red Bull overtakes. There will be some nice wheel to wheel between Mark and Seb, but it will be a Red Bull 1,2 with a Lotus 3rd. Lewis will finish 4th or 5th and Nico is going to be stuck behind the Ferrari's until the end. Button will finish 12th or so, and Riccardo is going to have a stellar first half with a disappointing second.
Another great quote from Raikkonen (I think pols means pole): I'm with him, I can't even watch those qualifying press conferences, I hit the mute until they're over.
Something went amiss in Nico's car, other than that, MB was sand bagging till Q3... If Seb wins it will be only because his driving skills are way better than Little Lewis's.. Look for Nico to move towards the front early.
As for me...I'm Ferrari tofosi, have been since I was a wee lad building a Tamiya made Ferrari 312 T4 model.
Me too Nathan, but it looks like the horse isn't prancing to well in Germany, take heart though, Alonso will get all there is to get out of her, maybe even a podium!
That's good, but even so... it just seems wrong. It'd be like hearing someone sing God Save the Queen before a baseball game.
Interesting article from a Bookie site, talking about the odds for this race. It was written a couple days ago, but it's nice for context. German Grand Prix Betting - Who will profit from new tyres at German GP? Some select quotes They also point out that Vettel has never won at home, nor has he ever won in July, which seems an inconsequential statistic. So the bookies are saying what I've been saying about Mercedes performance regarding the Kevlar tires, and they stand to lose more than me by being wrong. I don't actually have a membership at that site, so I'm not able to look at the race odds, but I'm going to stand by my assessment that this will be a Red Bull 1,2, and that Hamilton is going to lose places fairly early. That's what we saw before the tests, and I'm betting that's what we'll see tomorrow.
I think the race could come to the boys in red, eventually.......if they don't lose too much time at the beginning running the Prime tires when everyone else is on options...... When the other teams dive into the pits for new tires before lap 10, the Ferrari boys will still be motoring on, and the others will come out on primes for the rest of the race, so Ferrari will have commensurate pace till the last 10laps, when they'll switch to options and run away on light fuel load. The start is going to be a mess, Lewis and Vettel will streak off, Webba will streak backwards, and everyone else will be dodging madly around him, so first lap will be crazy, and Alonso will be up to 4th or 5th easily. From there, on heavy fuel load, they'll only have to stay as close as possible to the leaders and they'll be golden. That's how I see it...... We'll know tomorrow morning.
Thanks to the new tires I expect a few surprises, esp. in the second half of the race as wear rates become apparent and strategies break down. That said, I expect it's Vettel's race to lose, I think Rosberg will finish up in the points not far behind Hamilton and I have a hunch Lotus are in with a chance at another podium. Where will Alonso end up? No idea.